The UnSustainability Report 2023 – DK

Hello there. You’ve reached the green transition. Our current waiting time is 11 years. Across the country, businesses and individuals are ready to kick-start green energy projects. But they are being held back by a Kafkaesque bureaucracy that renders Denmark’s 2030 goals impossible.

What can be achieved in 9 years? If you’re NASA, you can develop the world’s biggest rocket and send it to the moon¹. Meanwhile, if you’re in Denmark, it’s barely possible to build a small offshore wind farm off the coast of Møn.

Building an offshore wind farm takes nine to eleven years, and things don’t move much faster on land².

The reason for this is not a lack of ambition or skills. Instead, it is due to processing times, complicated requirements and approval procedures for the various projects. In short: Red tape. Kafkaesque systems that slow down Denmark’s 2030 plans.

The Danish climate goals must be reached in seven years; renewable energy is crucial. That is why the government and parliament have agreed that by 2030 we must have quintupled electricity production from offshore wind turbines and quadrupled the production from onshore wind turbines and solar cells.

”Bureaucracy and inefficient processes are holding back the green transition, and that is not good for businesses and citizens.

Lars Sandahl Sørensen, CEO, Confederation of Danish Industry

But at the current pace, we will not reach our goal, says the Confederation of Danish Industry, among others. The message from industry is clear: We need less hassle, less bureaucracy and more predictability - otherwise, renewable energy will go far beyond the climate goal’s sell-by date³:

‘We need to speed up the expansion of renewable energy to have 100% green energy by 2030. Building an offshore wind farm takes almost nine years, and we must be driven to do it in half that time. Bureaucracy and inefficient processes are holding back the green transition, which is not good for businesses and citizens when we need cheap energy more than ever, says Lars Sandahl Sørensen, CEO of the Confederation of Danish Industry.

Our calculations indicate that if we speed up the roll-out of renewable energy, the CO2 gain would be substantial: an additional annual CO2 reduction of 750,063 tonnes on average and an effect over seven years up to 2030 of 5,250,443 tonnes in total.

Since 2000, Danes have purchased considerably more cars. About 850,000 more, or what corresponds to an increase of 46 percent⁵. This is much more than can be rationally explained based solely on logistics. At the same time, we have not seen a similar explosive population growth that could explain why more of us need to travel now. On average, there are only 1.08 people in the car when commuting to and from work⁶. Denmark hasn’t suddenly grown fourfold, and the distances haven’t increased. The conclusion is obvious: The Danes love cars, and we would rather have as few passengers in them as possible.

Every year, 75,000 new cars make their way to Danish roads⁷. At the same time, more than 19% of Danish families have more than one car, and the number is growing⁸. However, if we just added a few more passengers to the ones we already have instead of buying more cars, according to our calculations, there would be significant CO2 reductions.

“There are still too many new cars being purchased in Denmark, and the transition of the transport sector is not happening at the needed pace. The sale of new combustion engine cars should be phased out, and we should promote better use of cars and roads through taxes, among other things. This would also make most planned motorway projects redundant,” says Søren Have, Programme Manager for Future Mobility at Concito.

Two trends are occurring simultaneously: Danes’ commitment to the climate and our purchasing of more vehicles. Although Danes want green initiatives, we like cars more. Since 2000, about a million more cars have found their way to Danish roads. If we took up carpooling, the reduction in CO2 emissions would be up to 7.5 million tonnes by 2030.

It’s a bit paradoxical. If you ask the Danes, the climate is a core political issue. However, the green commitment fades into the background when buying a car, maybe even a second car. We are so fond of cars that emissions from the transport sector are expected to only drop marginally by 2.6% annually up to 2030, even though cars are becoming significantly greener. This is primarily because we purchase more vehicles and travel longer distances in them⁴. Therefore, transport will account for a larger share of our total emissions in 2030 than 2020, as emissions are reduced in the other sectors.

Many municipally owned buildings are losing heat. They are old and leaky. However, municipalities rarely carry out energy renovations and, consequently, lose the opportunity for significant CO2 savings. The reason is not a lack of ambition but the municipal construction cap.

31 million square metres. This is how much Danish municipalities own, from primary schools to town halls and nursing homes⁹. As Denmark’s largest real estate owners, it would therefore seem natural that municipalities also lead the way in energy renovation, but that is far from the reality. This is because of the municipal construction cap.

”In its current form, the construction cap is an exasperating and unnecessary barrier to sound investments and green transition.

Katrine Bjerre Milling Eriksen, director of Synergi.

Municipalities cannot choose how much money they want to spend on maintaining their buildings. As the name suggests, the construction cap limits how much money municipalities can spend on maintaining their facilities, for example. This restriction can have very real consequences, such as loose tiles, peeling facade paint and poor indoor air quality.

However, it also affects the climate accounts. The construction cap is not a cap on CO2 emissions - quite the opposite. This is because the cap limits how much municipalities can spend on energy-renovating their buildings.

A considerable number of them need energy renovations. Many are over 50 years old, have flimsy insulation and leaky windows - and some are heated by oil or gas boilers¹⁰. Consequently, they use much more energy and cost more in CO2 than necessary. CO2 savings can be made by investing municipal money in the energy renovation of municipal square metres.

“Energy renovation of old, dilapidated municipal buildings is good business for municipal budgets and the climate. An investment of DKK 5.6 billion¹² will generate CO2 savings of 80,000 tonnes each year and reduce the municipalities’ total energy bill by DKK 800 million. This means that the payback period is just seven years - after which municipalities will have an extra DKK 800 million each year to invest in schools, elderly care, day-care centres, or other services. Unfortunately, the construction cap is an obstacle for municipalities with money in their budgets or ready to borrow money for energy renovations. In its current form, the construction cap is an exasperating and unnecessary barrier to sound investments and the green transition,” says Katrine Bjerre Milling Eriksen, CEO of Synergi.

You know how it is. You’ve been dreaming of a new patio or deck. You’ve saved up for it. The materials have been purchased. But the carpenter? The earliest he can begin the work is sometime in November. The situation is the same for the green transition.

Ambition is not in short supply when it comes to the green transition. But there is a shortage of labour. More precisely, 25,000 people per year or around 200,000 people towards 2030. That is almost the same number of people who live in Odense Municipality. We are talking about people with IT skills and other specialists. Skilled workers, in particular, are in short supply.

Over the next few years, as oil and natural gas boilers are replaced, wind turbines are built, and energy islands are constructed, there will be a shortage of around 100,000 skilled workers. In addition to workers, there will also be a shortage of specialised short, medium and long-term higher-educated staff - especially IT experts who can develop the energy efficiency algorithms of the future.

A Danish Trade Union Confederation study found that investing in the green transition would create more than 200,000 additional jobs towards 2030¹³. The problem is just that there need to be more people to fill them.

The labour shortage is so critical that unions and organisations over a broad spectrum are calling for action in three areas: Education, retention and attracting foreign workers. And it cannot happen fast enough:

“As things stand now, there will be a severe shortage of skilled workers by 2030. That is even before we factor in the green transition, which will increase demand further. The green transition has been a golden opportunity for Denmark in the past. For instance, it could be the same again as it was with the wind turbines. However, we must educate and train more skilled workers, including young people, throughout the education system. This is a crucial factor in achieving the climate goals and creating the best terms for the Danish economy,” says Sofie Holme Andersen, Chief Economist at the Economic Council of the Labour Movement.

It should be obvious. Stop growing crops in areas of lowland soil and install solar cells instead. The CO2 benefits are potentially huge, yet tax regulations get in the way.

Lowland soil. What is that? It’s a type of farmland that used to be, for example, wetlands. It’s also a type of soil that contains particularly high levels of carbon. Carbon-rich lowland soils account for more than 50% of total emissions from cultivating the land, even though they comprise only 7% of the agricultural land in Denmark¹⁴.

Somebody needs to do something, you might think. You would be right – and not alone. In Denmark, agriculture is responsible for a third of the country’s greenhouse gases emitted into the atmosphere. Agriculture could take a giant step towards reducing emissions by ending the cultivation of crops on lowland soils.

It would be particularly beneficial to install solar cells on the land instead of cultivating crops.

”If we are to achieve our climate goals, a significant expansion of renewable energy will be required.

Peter Bjerregaard, Market Regulation Manager at Better Energy.

And herein lies the problem.

If a farmer chooses to ditch crops and opt for solar cells instead, the tax on the land increases as much as ninefold. More specifically, this is because the land goes from farmland to industrial land. This type of land is taxed more - and at the same time, the resale value is often less.

Although you could get more green energy for less CO2 by converting these farmlands, there is no single solar cell on Denmark's 170,000 hectares of lowland soil.

“If we are to achieve our climate goals, a significant expansion in renewable energy will be required. If we simultaneously install solar farms on carbon-rich lowlands, which can be removed from agricultural use and rewetted, we can kill two birds with one stone. Unfortunately, tax regulations are holding back development,” explains Peter Bjerregaard, market regulation manager at the energy company Better Energy.

A new smartphone. A new computer. A new TV. Throw out, repeat. The consumption of electronics is booming. Unfortunately, the same cannot be said for recycling the precious raw materials contained in electronics, which are needed to create green technologies for a green transition. Gains can be made on the climate account by increasing recycling and reducing consumption.

In 2020, Denmark won the Euros. Not in football but in buying electronics¹⁷. Unfortunately, in 2022 we will not be able to boast a similar European top position regarding recycling the many electronics we buy. In this respect, Denmark is down to 20th place in the EU¹⁸ because we only collect a little more than 50% of our electronics for recycling.

According to many experts, the growing pile of e-waste, old smartphones in the desk drawer and TVs in the attic is a real climate problem. Indeed, many of the precious raw materials in electronics (rare earth elements such as cobalt and lithium) are critical in developing the green technologies we need in the green transition - for example, for car batteries, microchips and solar panels^{19 20}. As the table below shows, by 2035, we’ll have an obvious problem getting enough of them if we continue with the status quo.

Electronic products impact our environment. Most of all, in production in terms of product lifetime and disposal. Once the precious metals and other limited resources have been extracted for production, it is essential to ensure that they are part of a circular flow, where the focus is primarily on reuse and life extension and then on recycling the materials that comprise the particular product,” says Thomas Billesø Jensen, Strategic Account Manager, Stena Recycling. 

The “good” news is that Danes are not the only ones contributing to the growing pile of e-waste that is not recycled. According to The Global E-Waste Monitor 2020, the amount of e-waste globally has increased by 21 per cent in just five years²¹.

”When precious metals and other limited resources are extracted for production, it is important to ensure that they are part of a circular flow.

Thomas Billesø Jensen, Strategic Account Manager, Stena Recycling

To tackle the problem and ensure better recycling of the precious resources hidden in e-waste dumps, the European Commission will propose new legislation on critical raw materials in the first quarter of 2023. Among other things, the legislation will help to increase the recycling of raw materials and increase production within the EU. Recycling could fully meet the EU’s needs for rare earth elements by 2050 and cover 45-77% of the demand for metals used in batteries by 2050²². But the prerequisite for being able to recycle is to collect our electronic waste in the first place. If we get better at this - and there is room for improvement - the global climate gains will be substantial. Read more in the box on the right.

We Danes love food! But we also love to throw food away. And that has consequences; for personal finances, especially when it comes to the CO2 footprint. Globally, food waste is as significant a burden as the entire transport sector. We will only meet our climate goals if we tackle food waste.

Every year, we Danes throw away just over 1,200 tonnes of food. The food waste in Denmark each year is equivalent to 9.5% of the total CO2 emissions in Denmark. So, it is safe to say that food waste is a significant climate burden. Producing food is so CO2-heavy that it amounts to the same as the global emissions from the world’s transport sector.

Clearly, food waste is a global problem. By 2050, there will be 9 billion people on the planet. That means we cannot continue wasting food at the current rate, where one-third of all the world’s food goes to waste if we are to have any chance of reaching our climate goals and feeding the world’s population in the future²³.

”The fact that the fight against food waste is shouldered mainly by volunteers and well-meaning citizens is unsustainable.

Selina Juul, founder and chair of Stop Spild af Mad (Stop Wasting Food).

So, what is the solution, then? Of course, it’s down to the individual household. More leftover food. Less sell-by-date hysteria. But experts point out that food waste is a systemic problem that can be attributed to every stage of the food chain, from production, processing and packaging to distribution, retail and consumption.

“It is not sustainable that the fight against food waste is mainly carried on the shoulders of volunteers and well-meaning citizens. Voluntary organisations cannot be expected to work weekdays and public holidays to solve the major societal problem of food waste and, in addition, to pay for the operation and costs out of their own pockets. If the battle against food waste is reliant primarily on volunteers and well-meaning Danes, there is a risk that it will peter out entirely in the long run,” stresses Selina Juul, founder and chair of Stop Spild Af Mad [Stop Food Waste], Sjællandske Medier, 2022.  

Primary production: 66.452 tons

Retail and wholesale: 99.500 tons

Households: 461.392 tons

Food industry: 596.599 tons

Catering industry: 62.544 tons

Companies developing green technologies are on the verge of rolling out their technology. However, something is slowing them down. Unclear rules and frameworks mean that no one dares to go all in.

Malicious tongues will say that the road to fulfilling Denmark’s 2030 climate target is paved with hockey sticks and grand promises. Achieving the ambitious goals requires new technology that helps reduce CO2 emissions. We already know and use some of these technologies, such as heat pumps, solar cells and electric cars. Others, such as Carbon Capture & Storage (CCS), are less known and less used to combat climate change.

However, according to both the UN Intergovernmental Panel (IPCC) and the Danish Council on Climate Change (DCCC), CCS is vital if we are to meet our climate goals, both globally and nationally²⁵. According to the government’s climate programme for 2022, the technical reduction potential for CCS is estimated to be between 3.2 and 8.3 million tonnes of CO2 by 2030²⁶.

That’s all well and good. The hockey stick is ready and just waiting to be swung.

That’s almost right. The good news is that the industry is gearing up to deploy the technologies substantially. The bad news is that the regulatory framework to do so is not really in place²⁷. In brief: What are the rules? What support will be available? What are we permitted to do? What are we required to do?

The Carbon Capture Cluster Copenhagen (C4) partnership also stresses that CCS needs more clarity on the framework requirements and infrastructure development if the technology is to start delivering CO2 reductions. At the same time, C4 points out that swift decision-making could make CO2 reductions both bigger and cheaper²⁹.

”The entire regulatory framework for CO2 capture must be set. Meanwhile, sufficiently high CO2 taxes are required in order to support investment in CO2 capture.

Jacob H. Simonsen, director, ARC

An example is the district heating sector, which produces significant amounts of CO2 that can be stored. In particular, they are calling for legislation to build CO2 capture facilities at municipal district heating plants³⁰. This must include a framework for how and when pipes can be installed to transport CO2 from plants to storage and to send the CO2 underground. Those rules must be in place before anyone dares to proceed. And so no one will pick up the hockey stick.

We support the green transition. As long as we don’t have to look at it, smell it, have it impact our real estate value, or...

One of the most significant barriers to the roll-out of green projects, like the construction of wind farms, is the so-called NIMBY syndrome, Not In My BackYard. Angry neighbours restrict, delay or stop green projects. Consultancies and politicians try to solve conflicts that should lead to more and better green solutions.

It’s been more than ten years since the disputes began. Back in 2011, landowners in the Gram area in southern Jutland had plans to build 46 wind turbines. Still, residents banded together and protested so vociferously that local politicians in Haderslev Municipality eventually gave in and scrapped the project in 2017. For the time being. Now the plans have been resumed. And so have the protests³¹.

Just like it was back in 2011, the local population is divided. Some fear that the value of their homes will decrease and that they will be exposed to the nuisance of noise and worsened views, while others can see a potential bargain in anticipation of lower electricity prices. The disagreement is so intense that it has become physical and psychological harassment.

”... We have to live with the fact that wind turbines and solar cells will be seen in the landscape, but it will benefit everyone.

Jacob Klivager Vestergaard, Head of Land and Marked (Land and Market), Green Power Denmark

The case from Gram is typical. Green projects face opposition almost everywhere. Protests which, in many cases, delay, limit or stop green projects altogether. They are making it challenging to get wind turbines and solar cells on land. The energy sector trade association, Green Power Denmark, advocates for a culture change.

“With a quadrupling of onshore renewables by 2030, we have a big challenge ahead. This means that every two years, we need to have as much renewable energy up and running as we have today. This places huge demands on all of us. Therefore, we need to reinvent the way we include residents. Because we have to live with the fact that wind turbines and solar cells will be visible in the landscape, but they are there for the benefit of everyone. However, it will also be visible that this gives us the reliability of supply and lower prices,” says Jacob Klivager Vestergaard, Head of Land and Market at Green Power Denmark.

Denmark is a great country. We are also a tiny country. And this will be a problem in the long term. A lot of green energy initiatives require space, and that is soon to be a scarce resource. Someone ought to make a plan.

Denmark is a lovely but small country. Politicians have grand ambitions for the green transition but few square kilometres on which to realise them: Four times as much energy production and far more protected nature. Then there are the other plans that will also use more or maintain areas, such as agriculture and infrastructure development.

The ambitions and plans for using Danish land are actually so substantial that if all these plans and objectives were realised, we would have to take Skåne and Blekinge back from the Swedes to have space for them all³². And unless the Minister of Defence has some sinister ulterior motives, it goes without saying that something else will need to be done.

”Areas are a limited ‘raw material’ that must be used to meet a wide range of objectives. However, no political consensus exists on how this ‘raw material’ should be distributed

Tage Duer, Project Manager for Future Land Use, CONCITO.

As several experts have identified, the problem is that no one has done the land-use maths and taken a good, hard look at what should - and should not - be accommodated in Denmark³³. According to the Danish Board of Technology, it will be the demands for increased energy production that will, quite literally, take up space in the landscape. Since 2017, that ambition has quadrupled politically.

Denmark’s new government aims to partner with agriculture, the food sector, nature organisations, consumer organisations and municipalities to develop a comprehensive vision plan for Danish agriculture by the end of 2023. The vision plan for Danish agriculture must also address the overall goals for land use in Denmark for agriculture, nature, and the expansion of renewable energy.

“Land is a finite ‘raw material’ that must be used to fulfil various objectives. However, there is no political consensus on how this ‘raw material’ should be distributed. The government has identified several initiatives necessary for the green transition that require space. But the initiatives will compete for space, which could get messy when implementing the plans.” says Tage Duer, Project Manager Future Land Use, CONCITO.

While visionary plans can be good, it requires a rigorous prioritisation of the available space to achieve all our ambitions. Otherwise, the green transition will halt over something as simple as a lack of space. 

“Without a comprehensive land strategy in Denmark, the green transition will be expensive for Denmark, and we risk not being able to achieve a climate-neutral and climate-resilient Denmark. If we don’t think carefully, it could be a bit of a toss-up on which agenda wins and dominates land use in Denmark in the future. This could jeopardise parts of the green transition.” Says Tage Duer, Project Manager Future Land Use, CONCITO.